2026-10-01 · 5 min read
Session edge, AI coach verdict, and running P&L for 2026-10-01.
Trim Review
How much of today's result was carried by a few outliers? The table recomputes the core session stats with the biggest movers removed. Trimmed rows are colored vs baseline: green = holds most of the move, amber = meaningful erosion, red = collapses or flips sign.
| Scenario | Trades | Net P&L | Total R | E[R] / trade | $ WR | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline (all trades) | 30 | −$7633.54 | -7.74R | -0.258R | 40.0% | 0.19 |
| − single best + single worst | 28 | −$2010.41 | -2.04R | -0.073R | 39.3% | 0.27 |
| − top 2 + bottom 2 (≈5% each tail) | 26 | −$1053.32 | -1.07R | -0.041R | 38.5% | 0.37 |
Trimmed trades: Single best + single worst — removed NXL +$1003.94 (best) · NXL −$6627.06 (worst). Top 2 + bottom 2 — removed 2 from each tail (by $ P&L).
Bottom-heavy red session: most of the loss came from a few prints. The broader distribution is closer to neutral than the total P&L suggests.
Session verdict
{"dayVerdict":"The session comes down to one trade: NXL, entered at 10:06am ET, lost $6.63k, and that entry landed at the exact minute the stock made its high of $10.98 (+24.8% from the $8.80 open) after a run of five halts that started at 9:35am. Six of your seven NXL entries came after that high, and the stock proceeded to give back the entire move and then some, closing at $7.55, -14.2% below the open — a -57% retention figure, meaning sellers took it through the open.
Your one NXL win, +$1.00k, was the first trade of the day at 9:30am, before any halt and well within the move. Across all seven NXL fills the stock netted you -$5.75k; strip that single name out and the other 23 positions netted roughly -$1.88k on a day that otherwise offered real volatility: EJH +45.6% from the open, SCKT +38.2%, MAT +36.7%, VEEA +36.9%, BTTC +34.5%, SDEV +26.3% — six traded names moved a quarter or more from their open.
Outside NXL, your capture was thin but mostly non-destructive. SDEV made +$139 off a stock that hit +26.3% at 10:09am and gave almost all of it back by the close (7% retained) — your only entry there came before the high, which is why you were able to extract a profit from a stock that ultimately kept almost nothing.
EJH, the day's largest percentage mover among your names (+45.6% to $2.17 at 10:24am, 44% retained), earned you only $38 on an entry that landed right at the high. BTTC moved +34.5% to $0.8336 at 10:34am and held just 6% of it by the close; all four of your entries came after that high, and the position cost $461.
MAT ran +36.7% to $17.23 at 2:38pm and actually held 53% of its move at $15.04 — one of the better-holding stocks of the day — yet all five of your entries came after the high, and you lost $487 on it anyway. VEEA was the inverse problem: the stock's real high didn't come until 3:26pm (+36.9%, 45% retained), but your worst fill there, -$1.11k, came at 9:39am, nearly six hours before the move that mattered.
WCT barely moved from its open (+0.6% at 9:52am) before collapsing through eight halts to a close 79.6% below the open; all four of your entries came after the first halt, and you still finished +$47 on it, a reasonable outcome given the collapse underway. Three runners you didn't trade today moved +30% or more (none above +43%, none holding even half the move at the close) — modest opportunity cost next to the moves you were already in.
Across the trailing week, premarket-high runners have been reliable faders: ten stocks with highs made before 8:00am — including both of NIVF's recent sessions (04:00am high on 10/1, 04:37am on 9/30) — closed holding 10% or less of their move, several deeply negative. NIVF fits that profile exactly: +18.9% to $0.1427 at 4:00am on 10/1, then -84% retained by the close, a round trip through the open; your $5 loss there, entered at 4:39pm, was a minor footnote to a stock that had already given everything back hours earlier.
On the other side, afternoon-high runners have held up better — six of eight runners with highs after noon this week (including a 15-halt name that held 71% and another that held 88%) kept 40% or more of their move — and both MAT (2:38pm high, 53% retained) and VEEA (3:26pm high, 45% retained) sit squarely in that holder group today, even though your own entries in both missed the window that would have captured it.
Your validated lanes tell a clean story today: the five positions that combined 2+ halts before entry with holds of 30 seconds or longer — an A+ lane worth +11.5 per $1k historically — lost $6.45k today, almost entirely NXL's 643-second hold at 10:06am. The five positions in the 2+ halts, under-30-second scalp lane (a DONT, -3.5 per $1k historically) cost only $306, and the two sub-$1 scalps held under 30 seconds (also DONT, -4.2 per $1k) cost $19.
In other words, the lane that has made money for you all year was the one that hurt you today, entirely on the back of one oversized NXL hold, while the DONT lanes behaved exactly as their label suggests — small and contained.
Your lone fill in the 4:30-5:00pm window, NIVF at 4:39pm for -$5, sits inside a window that's been green 8 of 10 days over the past 20, +$2.27k total — today's result there was negligible either way and doesn't move that picture."}