2026-09-30 · 5 min read
Session edge, AI coach verdict, and running P&L for 2026-09-30.
Trim Review
How much of today's result was carried by a few outliers? The table recomputes the core session stats with the biggest movers removed. Trimmed rows are colored vs baseline: green = holds most of the move, amber = meaningful erosion, red = collapses or flips sign.
| Scenario | Trades | Net P&L | Total R | E[R] / trade | $ WR | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline (all trades) | 40 | +$3048.89 | +3.19R | +0.080R | 45.0% | 1.80 |
| − single best + single worst | 38 | +$471.54 | +0.49R | +0.013R | 44.7% | 1.16 |
| − top 2 + bottom 2 (≈5% each tail) | 36 | −$103.33 | -0.11R | -0.003R | 44.4% | 0.96 |
Trimmed trades: Single best + single worst — removed LQDA +$3420.51 (best) · TNON −$843.15 (worst). Top 2 + bottom 2 — removed 2 from each tail (by $ P&L).
Outlier-carried green session: a single best trade (or the top 5%) is effectively the entire P&L. The rest of the book was roughly flat-to-red. Edge leaned on a few big pots more than the tape felt like it did.
Session verdict
{"dayVerdict":"Your single position in LQDA, entered 11:31am ET, produced +$3.42k gross — the largest trade of the day by a wide margin — and it came on a stock whose real story wasn't the tiny +2% open-to-high move at 10:12am but the collapse that followed. Four halts (11:24am, 11:31am, 11:38am, 1:47pm) bracketed a slide to a $30.26 close, -57.1% versus the $70.54 open, and your entry landed after the first halt and after that small early high — you were positioned into the downside, not chasing the opening pop, and the headline open-to-high number badly undersold what was actually available in that name.
The rest of the day split between big advertised movers you barely captured and small movers you handled well. TGE ran +81.8% to a $1.90 high at 9:49am and still held 59% of that into the close at $1.55 — a real, durable move — but across 11 entries (2 before the high, 9 after) you netted only +$319, with your best trade (+$912) landing right at the 9:49am top.
CMCT ran +95.6% to a $3.94 high at 10:36am and held 48% into the close; your one entry ahead of the high returned just +$121 on one of the day's largest percentage movers. TNON was the costlier version of the same story: +80% to a $5.04 high at 11:20am, 58% of that move still held at the $4.09 close, yet across 10 entries (8 before the high) you finished -$660, with your single worst trade of the day, -$843, landing at 11:20am — the exact top.
On the other side, VBIO offered only +9.7% before giving the whole move back and then some (-30% versus the open at the close), and across 10 entries — 9 of them before the 9:31am high — you still finished +$203; BIYA gave back its entire +29.8% move (-67% retained) and you still netted +$92 across two entries. NIVF was the clean loser: its +68% move happened at 4:37am, premarket, and had already faded to +0.6% versus the open (1% retained) by the close — both your entries came after the high, and both lost, for -$345.
Put together, three of the day's four biggest percentage movers — TGE, CMCT and TNON, each up 80% or more from the open — combined for roughly a -$220 net across 22 entries, while the entire day's gain sits in one read on LQDA, a stock whose advertised move looked trivial but whose real range you caught. The 4 runners you skipped today were comparatively modest: 2 moved +30% or more (the largest +48.1%), and none of the +30% movers held even half of that move into the close — limited opportunity cost sitting out, next to what TGE, CMCT and TNON already offered without you fully capturing it.
Across the last week, every runner whose high printed before 6am ET — 7 of them, including NIVF — closed holding 6% or less of that move, several going negative. NIVF fits that profile exactly: a +68% premarket gap that had already retraced to +0.6% by the time you were entering, both your fills coming after the high, both losing.
Your other names today — TGE, CMCT, TNON, VBIO — all made their highs during the regular session (9:31am to 11:52am), the window where this week's better-held movers tend to sit, even if you didn't fully capture what they offered.
Your validated lanes show the same split as the day itself: the 2 positions that sat in names with 2+ halts before entry — LQDA and CMCT — made +$3.54k combined, consistent with that lane's A/A+ history (+3.2 to +11.4 per $1k over the ten-month study), while the 37 positions without that halt profile netted -$571. One sub-$1 scalp held under 30 seconds sat in your DONT lane (-4.2 per $1k historically) and cost -$211 today.
The entire day's edge ran through two trades in your best-validated setup."}