2026-09-25 · 5 min read
Session edge, AI coach verdict, and running P&L for 2026-09-25.
Trim Review
How much of today's result was carried by a few outliers? The table recomputes the core session stats with the biggest movers removed. Trimmed rows are colored vs baseline: green = holds most of the move, amber = meaningful erosion, red = collapses or flips sign.
| Scenario | Trades | Net P&L | Total R | E[R] / trade | $ WR | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline (all trades) | 54 | +$1387.68 | +1.47R | +0.027R | 42.6% | 1.14 |
| − single best + single worst | 52 | +$795.49 | +0.85R | +0.016R | 42.3% | 1.09 |
| − top 3 + bottom 3 (≈5% each tail) | 48 | −$446.09 | -0.47R | -0.010R | 41.7% | 0.93 |
Trimmed trades: Single best + single worst — removed MSGY +$2103.43 (best) · CNET −$1511.24 (worst). Top 3 + bottom 3 — removed 3 from each tail (by $ P&L).
Outlier-carried green session: a single best trade (or the top 5%) is effectively the entire P&L. The rest of the book was roughly flat-to-red. Edge leaned on a few big pots more than the tape felt like it did.
Session verdict
{"dayVerdict":"Gross P&L today was +$1.39k across 54 positions, and the story is almost entirely one stock: MSGY offered +436.2% from its $2.130 open to an $11.42 high at 12:02pm across 3 halts (10:05am, 10:20am, 11:06am), then gave back a third of it to close at $8.070, still holding 64% of the open-to-high move. You took 24 positions in it for +$1.83k gross, with your best entry at 12:02pm (+$2.10k, right at the high) and your worst at 4:00pm (-$1.21k, chasing 30+ minutes past the high with the stock already $1k+ off its peak).
Of your 24 entries, 6 came before the high and 18 after — you were mostly buying the retracement and holding-area chop rather than the initial move, and the split result reflects that: real money made, but a good chunk of it handed back on late, low-quality entries into the same name.
Elsewhere the picture is mixed but mostly proportionate to what was offered. APUS moved a modest +9.9% to $9.140 at 9:34am and then gave the whole move back and more, closing -12.9% versus the open; your 4 entries, all before the high, still netted +$1.64k — a rare case of extracting real profit from a stock that ultimately went nowhere.
JAGX offered +33.1% to $12.10 at 10:04am across 4 halts and then reversed hard to close -15.3% under the open (-46% of the move retained); your 2 entries netted +$597. TDIC's +101% move to $4.00 at 12:22pm held 58% of it into the close, and your single entry there (12:22pm, right at the high) captured +$119 cleanly.
On the loss side, CNET was the day's costliest miss: it offered +64.9% to $2.870 at 9:46am and gave back 90% of that move by the close, and all 8 of your entries came after the high (8:00-10:01am) for -$2.22k gross, with your worst single entry -$1.51k at 9:46am — you were entering into the top of a fast reversal in a stock with only 2 halts and a $9.1M market cap. FGL offered +52.8% to $6.600 at 12:35pm across 3 halts and closed flat versus the open (0% retained); your one entry, also at 12:35pm right as the high formed, cost -$940.
Two of today's 14 runners went untraded, and only one moved 30%+ from the open (+45.9%, not held at the close), so the opportunity cost sitting on the sidelines was small — the day's real edge and real leak were both inside names you already traded.
Across the trailing week, the runners that held the most into the close skew toward sub-$5M float names with multiple halts and afternoon or midday highs — MSGY (2.2M float, 3 halts, 12:02pm high, 64% retained) and TDIC (2M float, 1 halt, 12:22pm high, 58% retained) both fit that profile, while the premarket and early-morning toppers in the trailing set (R17 at 4:48am, R22 at 5:27am, R31 at 4:00am) all closed giving back 19% or more of their moves. Your two names that fit the hold profile were also your two best-behaved entries of the day (TDIC clean, MSGY messier but still net positive), while CNET and FGL — both single-halt or moderate-halt names with 9:46am/12:35pm highs that faded to flat or worse — sit with the fade group, and your entries there came after the fade was already underway.
Against your own validated lanes, the split is stark: positions sitting in an A+/A lane with no DONT lane numbered 22 for +$2.83k, while the 17 positions touching a DONT lane cost -$3.55k. The specific lane that made the day was "2+ halts before entry, held 30 seconds or longer" (A+, historically +11.3 per $1k) — 16 positions for +$3.60k today, almost entirely MSGY.
The lane that hurt was "2+ halts before entry, scalped under 30 seconds" (DONT, historically -3.5 per $1k) — 15 positions for -$3.21k today, also concentrated in MSGY, where holding longer worked and cutting fast into the same halted name did not. Entries within 2 minutes of a resume (A, +4.0 per $1k) covered 12 positions for +$1.90k, including the CNET 9:46am entry that still lost -$1.51k despite sitting in a validated lane — a reminder that even a favorable lane classification didn't save an entry made right as a fast reversal was already forming."}