2026-09-11 · 5 min read
Session edge, AI coach verdict, and running P&L for 2026-09-11.
Trim Review
How much of today's result was carried by a few outliers? The table recomputes the core session stats with the biggest movers removed. Trimmed rows are colored vs baseline: green = holds most of the move, amber = meaningful erosion, red = collapses or flips sign.
| Scenario | Trades | Net P&L | Total R | E[R] / trade | $ WR | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline (all trades) | 39 | −$1681.13 | -2.36R | -0.060R | 28.2% | 0.64 |
| − single best + single worst | 37 | −$2169.02 | -3.04R | -0.082R | 27.0% | 0.45 |
| − top 2 + bottom 2 (≈5% each tail) | 35 | −$2271.38 | -3.19R | -0.091R | 25.7% | 0.34 |
Trimmed trades: Single best + single worst — removed TNON +$1141.81 (best) · TNON −$653.91 (worst). Top 2 + bottom 2 — removed 2 from each tail (by $ P&L).
Broad-based red session: the loss is still there after trimming the biggest movers — this wasn't one bad trade, it was the whole book tilted the wrong way.
Session verdict
Six names traded, -$1.68k gross across 39 positions, against a day where the biggest mover of the six you touched was FGL, up 84.9% from its $4.45 open to a high of $8.23 at 11:43am — and you were 0 for 3 in it, entering only after that high with your three positions costing $547. All three fills came after the peak; the stock still held 26% of that move into the last print at $5.45, but none of it came your way.
PCLA behaved similarly: it ran to $15.45 (+22.8%) at 10:09am, then gave essentially all of it back to close at $10.11, an -86% retracement of the open-to-high move, and your three entries — all before the high, 10:05am-10:08am — lost $157 with zero winners. TNON was your heaviest engagement by far, 16 positions and -$197 net, against a stock that moved +33.2% to $10.84 by 10:52am then fell to $5.93, giving back 82% of the move; 15 of your 16 entries came after the high, and the position mix inside TNON was extreme — a single $1.14k win at 1:44pm sat next to a $654 loss at 11:56am, both inside the same six-halt name.
FTFT gapped and ran to $3.40 (+20.6%) by 9:38am, then collapsed back to essentially flat by the close (10% of the move retained); your seven entries there, split 3 before/4 after the high, netted -$192. TRUG was the one stock that both moved meaningfully and held a real share of it — +50.8% to $0.754 at 3:42pm, closing at 60% retained — but all six of your entries were early (before the high, 9:56am-12:23pm) and net -$174, so you were positioned in the right stock at the wrong point in its arc.
XHLD, the last trade of the day at 3:09-3:10pm, moved +29.2% to $13.84 right as you entered — all four fills came after the high — and cost $414 with zero wins.
At the day level, this was a session where the moves were sizable (four of your six names moved 20%+ from the open) but your entry timing sat mostly on the wrong side of the highs — 26 of your roughly 39 entries came after the peak across these names, and five of your six traded stocks gave back most or all of their move by the time you were positioned. The exception, TRUG, held the bulk of its gain but you were early rather than late.
Three runners you didn't trade today moved 30%+ from the open, two of those 50%+ and the largest 120%, with one holding over half its move into the close — real opportunity cost sitting alongside a day where the names you did trade mostly reversed on you.
Looking at the last week's runners in aggregate, the split between holders and bleeders tracks timing of the high closely: two runners this week that made their highs in the afternoon (1:09pm and 3:44pm) held 63% and 81% of their moves respectively, while multiple runners that peaked before 9:35am gave back nearly everything — one that ran 345% before 9:03am closed retaining just -6% of that move, and another that peaked at 9:33am closed at -100% retained. FTFT and PCLA both fit the fade side of that pattern exactly: FTFT's high came at 9:38am both days it ran (this session and 9/9) and retained only 10-36% of its move each time, and PCLA's technical-driven pop also faded hard intraday on both recent sessions.
TNON is the outlier worth flagging — its high on 9/10 came at 2:48pm and held 63%, but today's high came far earlier at 10:52am and gave back 82%, consistent with the broader pattern that later highs hold better than early ones.
Against your validated lanes, the split in today's dollars is stark: the six positions in the 2+halts/held 30s+ lane (A+, +10.7 per $1k historically) made +$1.59k today, and the four positions in the 4+halts lane (A, +4.3 per $1k) added +$170 — both concentrated in TNON. Against that, the ten positions in the 2+halts-but-scalped-under-30s lane (DONT, -3.4 per $1k) cost $1.83k, and the three sub-$1 scalps held under 30 seconds (DONT, -4.3 per $1k) cost $81.
Net, the 13 positions sitting in a validated A+/A lane with no DONT overlap made +$669, while the 13 positions carrying a DONT tag lost $1.92k — the same halted names, TNON especially, paid when held past 30 seconds and cost money when scalped quickly.