2026-08-27 · 4 min read
Session edge, AI coach verdict, and running P&L for 2026-08-27.
Trim Review
How much of today's result was carried by a few outliers? The table recomputes the core session stats with the biggest movers removed. Trimmed rows are colored vs baseline: green = holds most of the move, amber = meaningful erosion, red = collapses or flips sign.
| Scenario | Trades | Net P&L | Total R | E[R] / trade | $ WR | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline (all trades) | 39 | −$897.33 | -1.08R | -0.028R | 46.2% | 0.83 |
| − single best + single worst | 37 | −$1902.73 | -2.29R | -0.062R | 45.9% | 0.59 |
| − top 2 + bottom 2 (≈5% each tail) | 35 | −$1855.33 | -2.24R | -0.064R | 45.7% | 0.54 |
Trimmed trades: Single best + single worst — removed BRNX +$1785.59 (best) · PPCB −$780.20 (worst). Top 2 + bottom 2 — removed 2 from each tail (by $ P&L).
Broad-based red session: the loss is still there after trimming the biggest movers — this wasn't one bad trade, it was the whole book tilted the wrong way.
Session verdict
Today's fills show 39 positions producing a net -$897.33 on a 46.2% win rate, and the only trade that actually mattered by dollar size was BRNX, a long at 1:48pm ET that returned +2.15R and $1.79k — the single material trade of the day. Nothing else in the fill list clears even 1R in either direction, which means the other 38 positions netted roughly -$2.68k against that one winner, a pattern of one real capture surrounded by a wide field of small, inconclusive trades rather than a day defined by a big miss or a big blowup.
None of the 39 tickers traded appear by name in the market-context pack for 2026-08-27 (CELU, YAAS, MIMI, WNW, PPCB, NCPL, BTCT, DAIC), so there is no direct read on how much of any single runner's move was captured or missed today — the fills sit outside the pack's named universe entirely. That said, the runners that did move today set a real bar: CELU offered a 129.7% open-to-high move by 11:04am and held 69% of it into the close, while YAAS (+69.2%), PPCB (+26.5%) and MIMI (+43%) all gave back more than they kept, with MIMI and PPCB closing below their own opens (pctOfMoveRetained of -102% and -138% respectively).
Four runners today moved 25% or more from the open and only one of them (CELU) held a majority of its move — none of that opportunity is visible in the fills, so the day's -$897 result was earned or lost entirely in names outside this pack's tracked list, an aggregate opportunity-cost point rather than a trade-by-trade one.
The $ win rate of 46.2% sits exactly on the 90-day baseline of 46.2% (z=0.000), but the profit factor of 0.83 is well under the baseline's 1.20, meaning losses on the day ran larger relative to wins than the historical norm even though the win/loss split was typical — average loss -$258.96 against average win $252.26, a slightly negative edge on size rather than on hit rate. That mirrors the broader 7-day trend, where PF has slipped to 1.07 from 1.14 over the prior 30 days despite a small win-rate gain (45.4% vs 44.3%), suggesting the erosion is coming from loss size rather than accuracy.
Across the trailing week's tracked runners, the pattern on move retention keeps showing up around timing and gap size: DAIC's four appearances gapped repeatedly (up to +153.6% on 8/24) and made highs late in the session or after hours (17:19, 17:00, 16:15), and three of those four closed having given back more of the move than they kept (-107%, -18%, and only +13% retained even on the +479.5% day). By contrast, names with mid-morning highs before 11am — CELU (11:04, 69% retained), CRE (10:26, 29% retained), XPON on 8/26 (10:15, 51% retained) — held a meaningfully larger share of their moves than the pre-market or after-hours toppers.
Since none of today's fills land in the pack's named list, this pattern can't be applied to a specific position today, but it does frame the one material win, BRNX, as an early-afternoon (1:48pm) long that captured a real move rather than chasing a late fade.
No 30-minute window in the evidence table clears a consistent same-direction bar across enough days to draw a timing conclusion — the 1:30-2:00pm slot went 100% green today on just 2 trades, but only shows up on 6 of the last 20 days, too thin to treat as a standing edge.