2026-08-21 · 4 min read
Session edge, AI coach verdict, and running P&L for 2026-08-21.
Trim Review
How much of today's result was carried by a few outliers? The table recomputes the core session stats with the biggest movers removed. Trimmed rows are colored vs baseline: green = holds most of the move, amber = meaningful erosion, red = collapses or flips sign.
| Scenario | Trades | Net P&L | Total R | E[R] / trade | $ WR | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline (all trades) | 39 | +$1588.46 | +2.10R | +0.054R | 43.6% | 1.49 |
| − single best + single worst | 37 | +$959.68 | +1.27R | +0.034R | 43.2% | 1.35 |
| − top 2 + bottom 2 (≈5% each tail) | 35 | +$655.44 | +0.86R | +0.025R | 42.9% | 1.28 |
Trimmed trades: Single best + single worst — removed SDOT +$1107.34 (best) · USDE −$478.57 (worst). Top 2 + bottom 2 — removed 2 from each tail (by $ P&L).
Broad green session: still clearly green after trimming the biggest movers, so the day was a stack of small plus-EV decisions compounding — not a few home runs.
Session verdict
{"dayVerdict":"SDOT was today's only real move traded and it was also the biggest mover of the day: open $8.24 to a high of $19.90 at 11:20am ET, a 141.5% open-to-high swing that gave back a lot into the close (finishing $13.18, holding 42% of the move). The trader's SDOT long at 10:46am ET produced +1.46R, +$1.11k — the day's single material trade and the only fill at or above 1R.
That entry came roughly half an hour before the 11:20am high, meaning it was positioned inside the actual run rather than chasing the top, and the dollars captured reflect a real share of a move most of the market only saw retrace afterward.
Outside of SDOT, the other 38 fills were spread across smaller, quieter names — HOWL (+21.4% at 8:21am, closed down 51% of its move), JUNS (+35.8% at 10:12am, closed 69% below its open — a net loser on the session by the close), USDE (+77.6%, but its high didn't land until 4:20pm, after the trader's session), and PMI (+94.3% at 8:26am premarket, closed holding just 14%). None of these gave the trader anything close to what SDOT gave, and the aggregate result on the other 38 positions came in essentially flat to slightly negative around a single $1.11k winner — a day where nearly all the net profit ($1.59k total) came from correctly working the one stock that actually moved, while a wide net of smaller names produced $283.64 average wins against $146.98 average losses without adding meaningfully to the total.
That is a day shape worth noting on its own terms: one real move, taken well, surrounded by a lot of activity in names that didn't move enough to matter.
No other runner in today's list cleared even 50% open-to-high beyond SDOT and PMI, and PMI's move happened at 8:26am, well before typical trading hours for this session's fills — so opportunity cost today was limited to the fact that PMI's 94.3% move was left on the table entirely (0% captured), sizable but singular rather than a wave of untraded runners.
Looking at the last week, the split between holders and bleeders lines up with dollar volume and timing more than anything else. PFSA (August 18) moved +272% and held 78% into the close on $761M in dollar volume; WETO on August 17 moved +322.7% and held 44% on $725M in dollar volume with 5 halts — both large, halt-heavy, high-dollar-volume names that kept a real share of their run.
Against that, SGLY bled to -106% and -31% retained across its two appearances, TRUG bled to -89% and -9%, and RITR, LOOP, and UCL all gave back 90%+ of their moves — a run of small-float, low-dollar-volume names with early premarket or overnight highs (SGLY 7:01am and 4:53am, TRUG 7:20am and 4:02am, RITR 4:18am) that failed to hold. SDOT itself, at $297.8M in dollar volume with 3 halts and an 11:20am high, sits closer to the PFSA/WETO holder profile than the early-fade group, and the trader's one material trade landed inside exactly that kind of name — a higher-dollar-volume, halt-heavy mover with a late-morning high rather than a premarket spike that faded by breakfast."}