2026-08-14 · 4 min read
Session edge, AI coach verdict, and running P&L for 2026-08-14.
Trim Review
How much of today's result was carried by a few outliers? The table recomputes the core session stats with the biggest movers removed. Trimmed rows are colored vs baseline: green = holds most of the move, amber = meaningful erosion, red = collapses or flips sign.
| Scenario | Trades | Net P&L | Total R | E[R] / trade | $ WR | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline (all trades) | 54 | −$4101.77 | -5.67R | -0.105R | 45.3% | 0.50 |
| − single best + single worst | 52 | −$3546.57 | -4.91R | -0.094R | 45.1% | 0.49 |
| − top 3 + bottom 3 (≈5% each tail) | 48 | −$2358.60 | -3.26R | -0.068R | 44.7% | 0.52 |
Trimmed trades: Single best + single worst — removed WETO +$681.22 (best) · ONFO −$1236.41 (worst). Top 3 + bottom 3 — removed 3 from each tail (by $ P&L).
Broad-based red session: the loss is still there after trimming the biggest movers — this wasn't one bad trade, it was the whole book tilted the wrong way.
Session verdict
{"dayVerdict":"ONFO was the day's story and it was a costly one. The stock opened at $2.70, made its high of $6.08 at 11:09am ET — a 125.2% open-to-high move — and then collapsed to close at $2.59, actually finishing below the open.
That's a move that retained none of itself; anyone still long into the close gave back more than the entire gain. The trader took three separate long entries into that name — 10:12am, 10:15am, and 11:21am — for losses of $1.24k, $1.06k, and $928, totaling roughly $3.23k of the day's $4.10k net loss.
The 11:21am entry came twelve minutes after the actual 11:09am high, meaning that position was put on already past the peak of a stock that had nowhere left to go. All three ONFO fills were the day's only material trades (≥1R), and all three were losses — there wasn't a single winning trade of consequence to offset them.
Outside of ONFO, the rest of the day was a scatter of small positions across names like MDXH, STKH, AKAN, CGTL, BOXL, CAPR, SURG, WETO, and CYCU, most of which also gave back large chunks of their intraday moves — CYCU retained -195% of its 12.2% move, SURG -118% of a 24.2% move, WETO -106% of a 21.6% move — a pattern of moves that faded hard into the close across nearly every name traded today. The 54-position day produced a 44.4% win rate and a 0.50 profit factor, with average losses ($280.83) running well above average wins ($168.43), so even the smaller, non-material losses added up around the ONFO damage.
Of today's runners, MDXH was the one exception that held real value into the close — up 33% at the close, retaining 38% of an 86% open-to-high move — but there's no fill data suggesting the trader captured that hold in size the way ONFO was traded.
The named runners overall skewed toward giving back their moves: of the twelve today, eight showed negative pctOfMoveRetained, meaning the median outcome was a stock that bled out its gains by the close, not held them. MF made its high of 25.1 (92.5% move) at 9:15am and closed flat with the open, and STKH's 55.9% move at 8:38am cratered to a -56% retention by the close — both patterns matching the ONFO shape of an early, sharp high followed by a full round trip.
Looking at the trailing week, the stronger holders tended to make their highs later in the session and in smaller floats with heavier dollar volume — BOXL on 8/12 kept 62% of a 116.6% move with its high at 3:31pm, and FGI on 8/13 kept 28% of a 135.3% move with its high at 12:37pm, both afternoon highs on runners with over $400M and $1.1B in dollar volume respectively. By contrast, premarket-hour highs were bled out repeatedly: AKAN topped at 4:00am and gave back 38%, GXAI topped at 5:39am and gave back 20%, ELPW topped at 4:09am and gave back 18%.
ONFO's 11:09am high sits in between those extremes, but its close below the open puts it firmly in the fader camp — the trader's only real position of the day fit the profile of the names that don't hold, not the ones that do."}