2026-07-07 · 4 min read
Session edge, AI coach verdict, and running P&L for 2026-07-07.
Trim Review
How much of today's result was carried by a few outliers? The table recomputes the core session stats with the biggest movers removed. Trimmed rows are colored vs baseline: green = holds most of the move, amber = meaningful erosion, red = collapses or flips sign.
| Scenario | Trades | Net P&L | Total R | E[R] / trade | $ WR | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline (all trades) | 59 | −$3947.02 | -6.69R | -0.113R | 33.9% | 0.55 |
| − single best + single worst | 57 | −$3928.74 | -6.66R | -0.117R | 33.3% | 0.46 |
| − top 3 + bottom 3 (≈5% each tail) | 53 | −$2541.06 | -4.31R | -0.081R | 32.1% | 0.51 |
Trimmed trades: Single best + single worst — removed CLRO +$1463.92 (best) · CLRO −$1482.21 (worst). Top 3 + bottom 3 — removed 3 from each tail (by $ P&L).
Broad-based red session: the loss is still there after trimming the biggest movers — this wasn't one bad trade, it was the whole book tilted the wrong way.
Session verdict
CLRO generated all five of the session's largest positions — four losses and one win — netting roughly -$2,800 from those five alone. The stock opened at $9.59, reached $16.50 at 2:27pm ET (a 72.1% move from the open), and closed at $13.84, retaining 62% of the open-to-high range.
With $996.8M in dollar volume on a 0.9M-share float backed by a merger announcement, CLRO offered the largest range and by far the most volume of any runner today. The structure was right — tight float, defined catalyst, afternoon high, strong retention.
The difficulty was timing: four of the five entries came between 9:58am and 10:16am ET, nearly 4.5 hours before the stock made its high. The one winning position in that window returned +$1,460, but three losses totaling -$2,794 in roughly the same 18-minute stretch more than erased it.
The 12:44pm entry, placed about two hours before the eventual high, lost -$1,480 and was the largest single loss of the day.
The other 54 positions added a further -$1,136 to the session total. No individual trade among them reached a material size, meaning the rest of the session was a broad collection of small losses that outpaced the wins without any one position large enough to change the day's direction.
Three other runners today moved 70% or more from their opens, and you traded none of them. Two peaked before 9:30am ET and retained under 25% of their move by the close.
The third peaked at 10:59am ET and retained 56% — a real move, but on a 3.9M-share float with $55.4M in dollar volume, structurally lighter than CLRO in every relevant dimension. Not touching the premarket-top names was correct.
The issue is that the one name you did trade — which offered the most range and the most dollar volume of any runner today, by a wide margin — still produced a net loss, because the entries were clustered in the early part of the session rather than the part where the move ultimately resolved.
Across the trailing seven days, the sharpest predictor of whether a runner held its gains has been the timing of its high. Of 19 runners in this period that peaked before 9:30am ET, 17 retained under 35% of their open-to-high move — most gave back all of it or more by the close.
Every runner that made its high at or after 12:30pm ET with a float under 12M retained at least 36% of its move, five for five. CLRO fits that holder profile on both July 2nd (48% retained, high at 1:31pm ET, float 0.9M) and today (62% retained, high at 2:27pm ET, float 0.9M).
The name selection matched the pattern. The entries came during the early session, where — even for the strongest runners — the structure has consistently produced choppiness rather than directional movement.