2026-07-02 · 4 min read
Session edge, AI coach verdict, and running P&L for 2026-07-02.
Trim Review
How much of today's result was carried by a few outliers? The table recomputes the core session stats with the biggest movers removed. Trimmed rows are colored vs baseline: green = holds most of the move, amber = meaningful erosion, red = collapses or flips sign.
| Scenario | Trades | Net P&L | Total R | E[R] / trade | $ WR | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline (all trades) | 58 | −$5653.74 | -5.21R | -0.090R | 50.0% | 0.43 |
| − single best + single worst | 56 | −$4605.96 | -4.24R | -0.076R | 50.0% | 0.44 |
| − top 3 + bottom 3 (≈5% each tail) | 52 | −$3084.54 | -2.84R | -0.055R | 50.0% | 0.43 |
Trimmed trades: Single best + single worst — removed CLRO +$692.33 (best) · LGCL −$1740.11 (worst). Top 3 + bottom 3 — removed 3 from each tail (by $ P&L).
Broad-based red session: the loss is still there after trimming the biggest movers — this wasn't one bad trade, it was the whole book tilted the wrong way.
Session verdict
The $5.65k loss today is explained almost entirely by three positions opened before 10:00am ET. Two LGCL entries at 9:05am and 9:10am cost $1.62k and $1.74k respectively — $3.36k combined — and a CLRO entry at 9:37am added another $1.09k loss.
That is $4.45k of the $5.65k total in three fills. The remaining 55 positions produced roughly -$1.20k combined, with the 12:30pm-1:30pm windows recovering about $1.40k of that.
LGCL made its high of $3.4997 at exactly 9:05am ET — the first position, priced in the $3-5 range, was entered at that peak. By 9:10am the stock had already collapsed back to the $1-2 range, which is where the second position was entered.
The stock opened the day at $1.45 and closed at $1.51, retaining 3% of a +141% open-to-high range. With a 37.9M float and only $35M in dollar volume, there was no sustained buying pressure to carry the move beyond the opening minutes — the stock was structurally done moving before 9:10am.
Both entries landed at or after the only real moment the name offered anything, and together they drove the largest single-day damage.
CLRO is the harder outcome to sit with. It opened at $3.60 on a merger catalyst, has a 0.9M float, generated $553.6M in dollar volume, and made its high of $9.62 at 1:31pm ET — nearly four hours after the open.
It closed at $6.88, retaining 54% of a +167% range. The entry at 9:37am in the $3-5 price range was early, near the open price, on the day's strongest name by every measurable dimension.
That position was stopped out for -$1.09k. The stock then ran through $6, $7, $8, and $9 over the following four hours without the trader in it.
Losing money in CLRO while it produced the biggest intraday move of any runner today — and holding 54% of that move into the close — is the single most costly outcome of the session, not in raw dollars but in terms of what was available.
Across the last seven days of runner data, the fader-vs-holder split is consistent enough to be useful. Of the runners that made their highs before 9:30am ET — roughly 12 names across the trailing week — 10 closed retaining under 10% of the open-to-high range, and most went negative.
LGCL today (high at 9:05am, 37.9M float, 3% retained) fits that pattern exactly, as does LGCL on 6/29 (high at 9:20am, -56% retained). The names that held meaningful portions of their moves — CLRO today (54%), AZI on 6/29 (64%, high at 10:08am, 3.4M float, 1 halt), PCLA on 6/26 (46%, high at 12:02pm, 2.4M float, 12 halts) — all made their highs well into the regular session and had floats under 5M.
CLRO fits the holder profile as cleanly as any name in this dataset: sub-1M float, enormous dollar volume, afternoon high, meaningful close retention. The problem today was not name selection on CLRO — it was position duration.