2026-06-12 · 4 min read
Session edge, AI coach verdict, and running P&L for 2026-06-12.
Trim Review
How much of today's result was carried by a few outliers? The table recomputes the core session stats with the biggest movers removed. Trimmed rows are colored vs baseline: green = holds most of the move, amber = meaningful erosion, red = collapses or flips sign.
| Scenario | Trades | Net P&L | Total R | E[R] / trade | $ WR | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline (all trades) | 79 | −$1692.00 | -1.04R | -0.013R | 54.4% | 0.88 |
| − single best + single worst | 77 | −$768.58 | -0.47R | -0.006R | 54.5% | 0.93 |
| − top 4 + bottom 4 (≈5% each tail) | 71 | −$190.26 | -0.12R | -0.002R | 54.9% | 0.97 |
Trimmed trades: Single best + single worst — removed CAST +$2085.09 (best) · CUPR −$3008.51 (worst). Top 4 + bottom 4 — removed 4 from each tail (by $ P&L).
Bottom-heavy red session: most of the loss came from a few prints. The broader distribution is closer to neutral than the total P&L suggests.
Session verdict
CUPR is the whole story of the red. It opened at $3.26 and ran to $8.23 — a +152% move on $466M of dollar-volume against a 0.9M float — but it retained only 6% of that, the high printing at 9:56am and the close sagging back to $3.56.
You were long it twice, at 9:17am and 9:56am, for losses of -$3.01k and -$2.70k, and the second of those landed almost exactly on the 9:56am high. That's two longs into a name that gave back 94% of its range, and the timing put you buying right at the moment it stopped going up.
The $5–10 price band carried -$7.30k on 15 positions at a 40% win rate, and CUPR is what that band is — the single concentration that turned an otherwise-green book into a -$1.69k day.
Everything else you touched was net positive, and CAST is the cleanest example. It offered the biggest move on the board — open $0.598 to a $2.00 high, +234% — and unlike CUPR it actually held, retaining 49% with the high not printing until 12:52pm and 17 halts marking how much range was on offer.
Your 11:08am long took +$2.09k out of it. That is a real slice of one of the day's two strongest and best-structured runners, and it sits inside the $1–2 band that booked +$3.83k across 50 positions at 58%, with the $3–5 names adding another +$2.08k.
Strip CUPR out and this is a solidly green session built on the cheaper, better-retaining names; the damage was concentrated in exactly one ticker that behaved nothing like the rest of your book.
This was a generous board, not a sparse one: beyond CUPR and CAST it offered roughly ten other moves of +30% or better — UBXG at +89%, ASBP +76%, VSME +60%, GMM +53%, and a cluster of +30s — so the opportunity was there and your CAST capture proves you can take a meaningful piece of the right one. The verdict isn't that the board was thin; it's that you got the best one (CAST, +$2.09k of a 49%-retainer) and the worst-behaved one (CUPR, -$5.71k of a 6%-retainer) in the same morning, and the loser was sized to swamp the winner.
Worth noting on timing: both CUPR losses were booked before 10am, ahead of your most reliable stretch — the 10:00–10:30am window has been green on 15 of 20 days for +$23.1k over the trailing month — so the morning's damage came before the part of the day that usually works for you.
The retention pattern across the last two weeks lines up with that split. Of the two-dozen-odd runners that printed their highs before 8am ET, the overwhelming majority closed holding under a fifth of their move — the early premarket high has been a fade-it signal far more than a hold-it one — while the names that kept 60%-plus consistently put their highs in the afternoon or after the close.
Your two named positions fall on opposite sides of it: CAST's high at 12:52pm and 49% retention is the midday-hold profile, and you were long the right name; CUPR's 9:56am high and 6% retention is the morning-topper-that-bleeds profile, and you were long the wrong one. The board told you which structure pays, and your P&L split followed it almost exactly.