2026-05-28 · 6 min read
Session edge, AI coach verdict, and running P&L for 2026-05-28.
Trim Review
How much of today's result was carried by a few outliers? The table recomputes the core session stats with the biggest movers removed. Trimmed rows are colored vs baseline: green = holds most of the move, amber = meaningful erosion, red = collapses or flips sign.
| Scenario | Trades | Net P&L | Total R | E[R] / trade | $ WR | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline (all trades) | 102 | +$10257.65 | +15.38R | +0.151R | 50.0% | 1.98 |
| − single best + single worst | 100 | +$8032.18 | +12.04R | +0.120R | 50.0% | 1.84 |
| − top 6 + bottom 6 (≈5% each tail) | 90 | +$4238.13 | +6.35R | +0.071R | 50.0% | 1.63 |
Trimmed trades: Single best + single worst — removed PRFX +$3093.07 (best) · CGTL −$867.60 (worst). Top 6 + bottom 6 — removed 6 from each tail (by $ P&L).
Broad green session: still clearly green after trimming the biggest movers, so the day was a stack of small plus-EV decisions compounding — not a few home runs.
Session verdict
PRFX and MASK dominated the tape: 7 of the 11 material trades were in those two tickers, and they contributed $9.74k of gross P&L versus the $10.26k net for the entire 102-trade session. The three PRFX trades at +4.64R $3.09k in $3–5 and +2.03R $1.35k / +1.96R $1.31k in $5–10 alone added up to $5.75k, more than half of the day’s P&L.
MASK added another $3.99k across +3.14R $2.09k, +1.48R $986.77, and +1.38R $923.21 against a single −1.07R −$713.71 loser, so the MASK/PRFX cluster at $3–5 and $5–10 drove about $9.74k across 6 trades while the other 96 positions combined only contributed roughly $0.52k. The $3–5 bucket (28 trades, $6.77k, 53.6% WR) and $5–10 bucket (28 trades, $3.57k, 50.0% WR) massively out-earned the $2–3 bucket (15 trades, $1.17k, 46.7% WR) and $10–15 bucket (12 trades, $1.24k, 66.7% WR), so your realized edge today clustered in the mid-priced $3–10 names rather than being evenly spread across price.
With a 50.0% $ win rate on 102 positions but an E[R] of 0.151R and overall PF 1.98, the day’s edge came from a small group of +2R to +4.64R trades in that $3–10 cluster rather than from any improvement in hitrate. The lone big loser in CGTL at −1.30R −$867.60 in the $0.50–1.00 bucket marks the sub-$1 space as a drag relative to your $3–10 performance, while the rest of the ≥1R losers were contained to a single −1.07R −$713.71 MASK trade inside an otherwise strongly profitable regime.
Significance and conceptual math
Your 50.0% $ win rate today on 102 trades is only +2.9pp over the 47.1% baseline (3863 trades), and the precomputed z=0.582 (p≈0.5609) says this hitrate is statistically indistinguishable from your usual environment. The big shift is in E[R]: today’s 0.151R vs the baseline 0.033R is roughly a 4.6x increase in per-trade expectancy with essentially the same WR, which pins the difference on payoff distribution rather than accuracy.
With an average win of $406.16 and average loss of −$205.03, your realized RR of 1.98:1 exactly matches the reported PF 1.98, and the breakeven $ win rate implied by those payoffs is 33.5%, so the 50.0% you actually printed is 16.5pp above breakeven. If your $ win rate had been 5pp lower at 45.0% while keeping the same $406.16 / −$205.03 payoff ratio, you’d still be about 11.5pp over the 33.5% breakeven, implying a materially positive expected day even with noticeably worse accuracy.
The last-7d window before today shows WR 42.4% and PF 1.27 on 290 trades versus prior-30d WR 45.7% and PF 1.08 on 1478 trades, so your recent regime has been lower hitrate but cleaner payoff shape, and today’s 50.0% / 1.98 spikes both metrics upward at once. The $3–5 bucket’s $6.77k on 28 trades at 53.6% WR equates to roughly $241 per trade there, while the $5–10 bucket’s $3.57k on 28 trades at 50.0% WR is about $127 per trade, so realized P&L per ticket was almost 2x higher in the cheaper names.
The 11 material trades contain 9 winners totaling roughly $12.30k against 2 losers at −$1,581.31, so material trades alone contributed about $10.72k, which implies the remaining 91 sub-1R trades were close to flat and mainly noise around the core regime. Since CGTL −1.30R −$867.60 in $0.50–1.00 represents about 8.5% of the day’s net and is one of only two ≥1R losers, any additional similar misreads in that tiny-price regime would have cut deeply into the $10.26k outcome.
Because your breakeven $ WR is 33.5% and your baseline WR is 47.1%, the fact that the recent-7d WR dipped to 42.4% yet still supported PF 1.27 lines up with today’s profile: a distribution where a handful of +2R to +4.64R trades like the +4.64R PRFX and +3.14R MASK drive most of the edge even when raw accuracy isn’t exceptional.
What you might have missed
Across 102 trades, essentially all of the net P&L comes from the 11 material trades contributing about $10.72k while the other 91 trades net roughly −$0.46k, so almost the entire day’s outcome hinged on about 10.8% of your activity. Within that, PRFX and MASK alone are responsible for about $9.74k of gross wins, meaning around 95% of the $10.26k net was generated by just 6 trades in two tickers.
The $100+ bucket with 2 trades and $7.85 P&L and the $1–2 bucket with 2 trades and $59.10 P&L were effectively irrelevant to the outcome despite representing 3.9% of your tickets, so capital and attention sent there had almost zero impact on the session’s final number. Given that CGTL −$867.60 in the $0.50–1.00 bucket and the −$713.71 MASK loser together account for about 15.4% of the day’s P&L in only 2 trades, a small change in just a couple of decisions outside the PRFX/MASK winners could have moved the session by several thousand dollars.
One thing to try next session
Next session, log running P&L by price bucket ($0.50–1.00, $1–2, $2–3, $3–5, $5–10, $10–15, $100+) after every 10 trades, and impose a concrete rule: stop initiating new positions in any bucket once its net for the day is worse than −$205 (≈−1R using your average loss of −$205.03) while at least one other bucket is already up $812 or more (≈+2R using your average win of $406.16), so you systematically tilt risk toward the buckets that are behaving like today’s $3–5 and $5–10 clusters and away from buckets behaving like today’s $0.50–1.00 CGTL trade.