2026-05-26 · 3 min read
Session edge, AI coach verdict, and running P&L for 2026-05-26.
Trim Review
How much of today's result was carried by a few outliers? The table recomputes the core session stats with the biggest movers removed. Trimmed rows are colored vs baseline: green = holds most of the move, amber = meaningful erosion, red = collapses or flips sign.
| Scenario | Trades | Net P&L | Total R | E[R] / trade | $ WR | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline (all trades) | 48 | −$2809.46 | -4.38R | -0.091R | 27.1% | 0.51 |
| − single best + single worst | 46 | −$3397.70 | -5.29R | -0.115R | 26.1% | 0.34 |
| − top 3 + bottom 3 (≈5% each tail) | 42 | −$3427.26 | -5.34R | -0.127R | 23.8% | 0.18 |
Trimmed trades: Single best + single worst — removed VCIG +$1128.99 (best) · MNTS −$540.75 (worst). Top 3 + bottom 3 — removed 3 from each tail (by $ P&L).
Broad-based red session: the loss is still there after trimming the biggest movers — this wasn't one bad trade, it was the whole book tilted the wrong way.
Session verdict
Today's trading session resulted in a net P&L of -$2.81k with a win rate of only 27.1%, significantly below the baseline win rate of 47.5%. The single material trade, a long position in VCIG that yielded +1.76R and $1.13k, contributed positively, but without additional winners, the day remained largely unprofitable.
The average loss of -$162.25 per trade indicates that losses were substantial relative to the average win of $220.70, highlighting a reward-to-risk ratio of 1.36:1 that isn't sufficient to overcome the high loss rate. The overall position count of 48 suggests overtrading, especially given that only one trade met the material threshold of |R| ≥ 1R.
Significance and conceptual math
The breakeven win rate based on average win and loss amounts is 42.4%, and today's performance at 27.1% indicates a significant shortfall. With a profit factor of 0.51, the losses are more than double the wins, which is unsustainable.
The last 7 days show a win rate of 42.2%, suggesting a slight improvement but still below the prior 30-day average of 46.2%. The z-score of -2.811 with a p-value of approximately 0.0049 indicates that today's performance is statistically significantly worse than the baseline.
The material trade count of 1 from 48 positions indicates a lack of effective trading opportunities today.
What you might have missed
Despite a challenging session, the $1–2 price bucket showed a remarkable win rate of 75.0%, which contrasts sharply with the overall win rate of 27.1%. This suggests that smaller trades in this price range may be an area of strength that could be leveraged in future sessions.
One thing to try next session
For the next session, focus on increasing the number of trades in the $1–2 price bucket where you had a 75.0% win rate, while reducing positions in higher price buckets where the win rates were lower. Consider setting a maximum limit on the number of trades to avoid overtrading.