2026-05-19 · 3 min read
Session edge, AI coach verdict, and running P&L for 2026-05-19.
Trim Review
How much of today's result was carried by a few outliers? The table recomputes the core session stats with the biggest movers removed. Trimmed rows are colored vs baseline: green = holds most of the move, amber = meaningful erosion, red = collapses or flips sign.
| Scenario | Trades | Net P&L | Total R | E[R] / trade | $ WR | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline (all trades) | 118 | +$570.16 | +0.87R | +0.007R | 40.2% | 1.07 |
| − single best + single worst | 116 | +$126.69 | +0.19R | +0.002R | 40.0% | 1.02 |
| − top 6 + bottom 6 (≈5% each tail) | 106 | −$521.84 | -0.79R | -0.007R | 39.0% | 0.91 |
Trimmed trades: Single best + single worst — removed NXXT +$927.18 (best) · CNEY −$483.71 (worst). Top 6 + bottom 6 — removed 6 from each tail (by $ P&L).
Outlier-carried green session: a single best trade (or the top 5%) is effectively the entire P&L. The rest of the book was roughly flat-to-red. Edge leaned on a few big pots more than the tape felt like it did.
Session verdict
Today's net P&L of $570.16 was primarily driven by two material trades, with NXXT contributing +$927.18 at +1.41R and GCL adding +$682.69 at +1.04R. However, the overall win rate of 39.8% is below the breakeven threshold of 38.5%, indicating that while the profitable trades were substantial, the ratio of losers to winners was concerning.
The average win of $180.99 significantly outpaced the average loss of -$113.37, maintaining a reward:risk ratio of 1.60:1. The session's win rate is also notably lower than the baseline win rate of 47.8%, suggesting a decline in effectiveness compared to previous performance.
Significance and conceptual math
With a win rate of 39.8%, you are just above breakeven, which is 38.5%. The profit factor of 1.07 indicates that while you are making more on winning trades, the losses are still impactful.
Your average win of $180.99 versus an average loss of -$113.37 suggests a strong potential if the win rate can improve. The last 7 days show a win rate of 47.0% compared to today's 39.8%, indicating a recent drop in performance.
The material trades today (2 at ≥ +1R) suggest a reliance on fewer high-quality trades, which may not be sustainable if the win rate does not improve.
What you might have missed
Despite a lower win rate today, the $3.82k earned from trades in the $0.50–1.00 price bucket had a win rate of 49.2%, indicating that this segment might be worth focusing on more in future sessions. The loss in the $2–3 bucket was particularly notable, with a 25.0% win rate and a loss of -$1.37k, which could suggest that this price range is currently unfavorable for your strategy.
One thing to try next session
Consider adjusting your strategy to focus more on the $0.50–1.00 price bucket, where you achieved a higher win rate. Additionally, review the trades in the $2–3 price range to identify potential adjustments or avoid this segment if it continues to underperform.