2026-05-15 · 4 min read
Session edge, AI coach verdict, and running P&L for 2026-05-15.
Session slice (heuristic read)
Trim Review
How much of today's result was carried by a few outliers? The table recomputes the core session stats with the biggest movers removed. Trimmed rows are colored vs baseline: green = holds most of the move, amber = meaningful erosion, red = collapses or flips sign.
| Scenario | Trades | Net P&L | Total R | E[R] / trade | $ WR | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline (all trades) | 94 | −$1289.93 | -2.07R | -0.022R | 44.7% | 0.87 |
| − single best + single worst | 92 | −$1155.01 | -1.85R | -0.020R | 44.6% | 0.87 |
| − top 5 + bottom 5 (≈5% each tail) | 84 | −$1821.63 | -2.92R | -0.035R | 44.0% | 0.74 |
Trimmed trades: Single best + single worst — removed PIII +$1000.82 (best) · PIII −$1135.74 (worst). Top 5 + bottom 5 — removed 5 from each tail (by $ P&L).
Broad-based red session: the loss is still there after trimming the biggest movers — this wasn't one bad trade, it was the whole book tilted the wrong way.
Session verdict
This session was a red day inside a still-improving 7-day stretch. Today finished at -$1289.93 with 94 positions, 44.7% $ win rate, 0.87 profit factor, and -0.022R, versus the incoming 7-day run at 0.090R E[R] and 1.45 profit factor against 0.034R and 1.11 in the prior 23 days.
Intraday, the open worked: 6:30am-7:00am PT made $738.78 and 7:30am-8:00am PT made $793.37, but late morning flipped the tone when QUCY winners at 10:31am PT and 10:43am PT for $808.98 and $716.29 were followed by a PIII long at 11:38am PT for -1.82R and -$1135.74. The rebound was immediate with PIII at 12:02pm PT printing +1.60R and +$1000.82 in under 30 seconds, but the bigger drag was structural: $10-15 names lost -$2248.27 on 18 trades at a 22.2% win rate, while $5-10 names made $883.27 on 19 trades at 63.2%.
Hold time lined up with the same split, with 47 trades under 30 seconds losing -$2156.52 versus 25 trades held 30-60 seconds making $706.61 and 12 trades held 1-2 minutes making $1688.30.
Significance and conceptual math
Your average win was $209.86 and average loss was -$194.31, so the breakeven $ win rate was 48.1%; today came in at 44.7%, or 3.4 percentage points short. That explains how a 1.08:1 reward:risk still produced -$1289.93 across 94 positions.
The day-vs-baseline win-rate contrast was 44.7% versus 45.3% with z = -0.127 and p ≈ 0.8987, so hit rate itself was basically baseline-like. The bigger miss was expectancy: baseline E[R] is 0.020R, the last 7 days ran at 0.090R, and today printed -0.022R.
The 5-point accuracy bump math shows the sensitivity of this setup: at the same $209.86 average win and -$194.31 average loss over 94 trades, moving from 44.7% to 49.7% projects $1899.60 instead of -$1289.93, a swing of about $3189.53. But the bucket data says selectivity may be the cleaner lever than a blanket accuracy target, because the 18 trades in $10-15 names lost -$2248.27 and the 47 trades under 30 seconds lost -$2156.52, while the combined 37 trades held 30-60 seconds and 1-2 minutes made $2394.91.
One thing to try next session
For the next session, block new entries in the $10-15 price bucket after 10:30am PT. That bucket was the session's largest leak at -$2248.27 on 18 trades with a 22.2% win rate, and the two biggest PIII swings both came there at 11:38am PT and 12:02pm PT.
The goal is not fewer trades everywhere; it is removing the part of the book that was both late-morning and $10-15-specific while keeping exposure to stronger areas like $5-10 names and the 30-60 second to 1-2 minute holds.