2026-07-29 · 4 min read
Session edge, AI coach verdict, and running P&L for 2026-07-29.
Trim Review
How much of today's result was carried by a few outliers? The table recomputes the core session stats with the biggest movers removed. Trimmed rows are colored vs baseline: green = holds most of the move, amber = meaningful erosion, red = collapses or flips sign.
| Scenario | Trades | Net P&L | Total R | E[R] / trade | $ WR | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline (all trades) | 51 | −$850.43 | -1.15R | -0.023R | 38.0% | 0.83 |
| − single best + single worst | 49 | −$1001.69 | -1.35R | -0.028R | 37.5% | 0.77 |
| − top 3 + bottom 3 (≈5% each tail) | 45 | −$1012.37 | -1.37R | -0.030R | 36.4% | 0.69 |
Trimmed trades: Single best + single worst — removed MSS +$865.37 (best) · NCRA −$714.11 (worst). Top 3 + bottom 3 — removed 3 from each tail (by $ P&L).
Broad-based red session: the loss is still there after trimming the biggest movers — this wasn't one bad trade, it was the whole book tilted the wrong way.
Session verdict
{"dayVerdict":"Today's only trade that mattered by size was MSS, a long at 10:42am ET that returned +1.17R, or $865.37. That single fill is nearly the whole story of the day's material P&L — everything else came from 50 other positions that netted to roughly zero relative to it, since the day closed at -$850.43 despite that winner.
MSS itself opened at $1.59, made its high of $3.67 at 10:54am ET (a 131% open-to-high move) and collapsed to $1.64 by the close, retaining just 2% of that move — with two halts along the way. The trader's entry near the open captured a real piece of a stock that gave almost all of its move back to the close, which is a well-timed trade against a name that ultimately bled hard.
Beyond MSS, the rest of the day's 50 positions produced a 37.3% win rate and a 0.83 profit factor, with average losses ($161.15) not far below average wins ($218.17) but occurring more often. The $3–5 bucket, which held 34 of the 51 trades, lost $1.76k on a 35.3% win rate — the bulk of the day's activity sat in a price range that simply didn't work today, dragging down what MSS had built.
DFNS, today's largest offered move at +144.7% open-to-high (open $39.23 to high $96 at 5:04pm ET, closing at $50.22 for 19% retention), was not among the trader's fills, nor were AMIX's 68% move or NUWE's 113.5% move — three other runners today moved 68% or more from the open and none were traded, representing real opportunity cost sitting outside today's activity.
Looking at the trailing week, the pattern in pctOfMoveRetained keeps favoring names with sub-2M float and highs made either very early or very late relative to the open: DFNS held 43% on 7/27 and 22% on 7/28 with a float of 0.9M, while MSS itself has bled on two of its last two appearances (2% today, -50% on 7/24) despite similarly tiny float — a reminder that tight float alone doesn't guarantee a hold, and today's fill correctly treated MSS as a fade-the-high name rather than a hold-through name. Wider-float, larger-cap names like ENTX (53.4M float, 77% retained on 7/27) and LVWR (12.9M float, 42% retained on 7/27) held their moves better than the sub-2M float, sub-$10M market cap cluster that includes GMM (-59%), NCRA (-34%), and EGG (-54%) from today's session — none of which were traded, so the pattern didn't cost the trader anything directly, but it does mark MSS as sitting on the correct side of a fade rather than an anomaly.
Net, today reads as a single well-timed trade in a volatile, ultimately fading small-float stock, surrounded by a much larger volume of $3-5 activity that gave the gain back and then some. The day's largest offered moves — DFNS at +144.7% and AMIX at +68% — were left untouched, while the one name traded was correctly read as a stock destined to give back nearly all of its intraday gain."}