Daily Trading Report — 2026-06-16

Net P&L came in at $439.55 on 48 positions with PF 1.06 and a 50.0% $ win rate, with the day heavily influenced by a single +$1.21k SUGP long at 5:04am PT in the $2–3 bucket plus a broad mix of smaller wins and losses elsewhere. In the early 4:30am-5:30am PT stretch you put on 8 positions for a combined $806.44 with sub-50% WR in both windows (33.3% from 4:30am-5:00am PT and 40.0% from 5:00am-5:30am PT), so you were already up more than the final $439.55 before 6:00am PT.

That $806.44 early gain came alongside $1,005.35 from the $1–2 and $3–5 buckets across the day, showing that most of the positive contribution came from the $1–5 names rather than the higher-priced or sub-$1 universe. The mid-session 5:30am-6:30am PT regime gave back $386.24 on 9 trades despite a 75.0% WR from 6:00am-6:30am PT and unchanged 40.0% WR from 5:00am-5:30am PT to 5:30am-6:00am PT, so P&L deterioration there came from payoff shrink rather than accuracy falloff.

By 6:30am PT you had taken 22 trades and surrendered a large chunk of the $558.71 from 5:00am-5:30am PT plus the $247.73 from 4:30am-5:00am PT, indicating that the favorable R-multiple skew around the SUGP trade did not persist once the time-of-day context shifted. From 7:30am-8:30am PT you added 12 trades for a net of $1.30k, almost all of which came from the 8:00am-8:30am PT window’s $1.29k on 4 trades, so late-session P&L again hinged on a small cluster of trades rather than steady accumulation across the full 60 minutes.

Because the only material trade was the +1.07R SUGP at 5:04am PT for $1.21k and there were no ≤ −1R losers, intraday P&L swings came from many sub-1R trades collectively eroding or adding to that anchor gain rather than from single large reversals.

Today’s 50.0% $ WR on 48 trades sits 2.6pp above your 47.4% 90-day baseline, and the z=0.363, p≈0.7164 contrast says this hit rate was statistically indistinguishable from your usual environment. Profit factor at 1.06 is sharply below your 1.36 baseline and even below the already-compressed 7d PF 1.20, so the session aligns more with the recent lower-RR regime than with your higher-efficiency 30d-ago environment at PF 1.65.

Your E[R] of 0.008R today is about one-seventh of the 0.057R baseline, meaning each trade produced roughly 0.049R less than your 90-day norm on average despite a slightly better win rate. With average win $343.93 and average loss -$355.22, the breakeven $ WR computes to 50.8%, so today’s actual 50.0% WR put you 0.8pp below breakeven purely on payoff skew.

The single +$1.21k SUGP at 5:04am PT represents about 275% of the final day’s net and about 15% of the roughly $8.25k gross positive P&L implied by 24 winners at $343.93 average, so the rest of the book collectively leaked back most of that outlier gain. Price-bucket math shows $0.50–1.00 names lost -$385.70 on 7 trades despite a 57.1% WR, while $1–2 and $3–5 names combined for $1,005.35 on 30 trades with 53.3% WR, so the cheap micro-cap slice behaved more like a negative-payoff grind than like the $1–5 area where you actually captured edge.

The $10–15 bucket contributed -$596.27 on only 2 trades at 0.0% WR, which is larger than the entire $439.55 net and therefore more than accounts for the difference between the realized day and what you would have booked without that price band. Time-slice math shows that 8:00am-8:30am PT’s $1.29k on 4 trades contributed about 293% of final net, while 5:30am-6:30am PT’s -$386.24 on 9 trades erased about 88% of that late-session pop, quantifying how quickly P&L flipped from additive to drag within the same session.

Compared with the last 7d WR 50.6% and PF 1.20, today’s 50.0% WR and PF 1.06 extend the pattern of slightly above-baseline accuracy but reduced payoff per trade, in a context where the only >1R follow-through was the lone +1.07R SUGP.